Strategic implications of China-India geo-economic competition for Pakistan (2015-2025)

Abstract

The increasing geo-economic competition between China and India has significantly reshaped South Asia’s strategic landscape, positioning Pakistan at the center of an evolving regional power contest. This study analyses the fundamental drivers of Sino-Indian geo-economic competition and its strategic ramifications for Pakistan’s economic development, security posture, and foreign policy orientation. China’s expansion through the Belt and Road Initiative, particularly the CPEC, reflects the growing centrality of economic statecraft in contemporary power politics. India, perceiving these developments as a challenge to its regional primacy, has responded through strategic partnerships, maritime expansion in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) and deeper alignment with the United States. The study explores the implications using the competitive lens to examines how China-India geo-economic competition affects Pakistan. The findings suggest that while CPEC offers Pakistan substantial economic opportunities, it simultaneously intensifies regional security dilemmas and strategic rivalry. The study concludes that Pakistan’s long-term strategic stability depends on its ability to maintain its diplomatic balance in its relations with other countries and to preserve its strategic autonomy aims great power competition.