Pakistan–Iran relations (2016–2020): Strategic convergence, structural constraint and the burden of external geometry

Abstract

Pakistan-Iran relations refer to the bilateral relations between two bordering Muslim majority nations having a 909-kilometer-long boundary between Baluchistan and Sistan-Baluchistan, a relationship which is defined by the overlapping ethnic geographies, sectarian sensitivities, energy interdependence and external alignments. Between January 2016 and December 2020, a concerted effort has been made to study this period because of the unusual nature of the events that occurred, including the arrest of Kulbhushan Jadhav, the Saudi execution of Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr, frequent border incidents by Jaish al-Adl, the United States' withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), and the Taftan centered coronavirus crisis, all of which saw the institutionalization of competing regional architectures by the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and India financing the Chabahar port. It has also taken the qualitative content analysis of official statements, contemporary reporting in the Pakistani, Iranian and Western media, and scholarly literature into account to explore the strategic rationale. It uses a tri-theoretical approach of realism, constructivism and strategic culture for the interpretation of cooperation and friction. What makes this research important is that this is a very detailed, event verified map of a 5-year time period that is sum arise in traditional surveys. It offers a middle power view to policy makers and academics in South Asia a nuanced approach for assessing policy implications of the manner in which a middle power manages its close neighborhood rivalry while retaining strategic autonomy and avoiding sectarian spillover.