Climate Change and International conflict: Assessing security risks in vulnerable Regions

Abstract

Climate change is emerging as a security issue, as it exacerbates the three features of societies with fragile livelihoods, unequal political power, and limited adaptive capacity. This paper addresses the research problem of 'how climate hazards translate into international conflict risks' and does not assume that climate change is inherently linked to violence. The article adopts a qualitative comparative case study design to examine the Sahel, Syria, and the wider Middle East and South Asia, and to assess the intermediary role of climate-related insecurity between the other three factors: resource scarcity, displacement, economic insecurity, and governance challenges. It draws on peer-reviewed climate-security academic research and on documents from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the United Nations, and the World Bank. The results indicate that climate change acts as a conflict risk amplifier: drought, floods, heat stress, and water insecurity further exacerbate social tensions; however, political inclusion and exclusion, livelihood dependence, weak institutions, and the ability to manage adaptation are all factors that influence conflict vulnerability. The article contends that there is a need to strengthen the linkages between climate adaptation, peacebuilding, and human security policy, and to move away from the idea that each policy should be implemented on its own agenda. Policy consequences include increased investment in adaptation finance, regional-level cooperation on resources, an early warning system, and national-level resilience planning.