Space security and South Asia: A critical evaluation of prevention of arms race in outer space (paros) and emerging threats

Abstract

This research paper evaluates the Prevention of Arms Race in Outer Space (PAROS) issue from a South Asian perspective. It critically focuses on emerging threats in space and the debate on legally binding and non-legally binding instruments on PAROS. It suggests the rapid weaponization of space amid increasing congestion, contestation, and dependence on space-based assets for civilian and military purposes. It offers an overview of historical and on-going multilateral efforts on PAROS, concentrated in the Conference on Disarmament, UN General Assembly, Groups of Governmental Experts, and Open-Ended Working Groups on PAROS. The paper highlights persistent stalemate of negotiating a legally binding treaty on PAROS, driven by geopolitical rivalries among major powers. Situating the analysis in South Asia, the paper critically analyses India’s rapidly growing military space capabilities, including its 2019 ASAT test and its strategic implications. It also highlights a shift away from India's stated policy of negotiating a binding treaty on PAROS to favour Western led norm building approach. The paper also evaluates Pakistan’s consistent opposition to space weaponization and advocacy for a legally binding treaty on PAROS. The paper answers why no single approach is suitable for PAROS. The paper concludes that South Asia is witnessing rapid development in counterspace capabilities and a legally binding instrument on PAROS would lower the risks of counter space asymmetry, threats to strategic stability. Moreover, the paper concludes that in the absence of binding constraints risks to space assets would further destabilize regional and global strategic stability.